Regional disparities and metabolic determinants of type 2 diabetes in women aged 55 and older.

OBJECTIVE

To assess long-term trends, regional disparities, determinants, and quality of care for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) among women aged 55 years or above worldwide.

METHODS

Using Global Burden of Disease 2023 data, we quantified incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to T2DM among women aged 55 years or above from 1990 to 2023. Temporal trends were evaluated using joinpoint regression. Regional determinants were identified through explainable machine learning models (XGBoost with Shapley Additive Explanations). A Quality-of-Care Index, derived from mortality, disability, and prevalence indicators, was constructed to evaluate health care performance.

RESULTS

In 2023, South Asia recorded the largest absolute burden of T2DM among women aged 55 years or above, with 749,064 cases (95% uncertainty intervals [UI] 592,209-892,315), 274,542 deaths (171,620-381,640), and 8.11 million DALYs (5.82-10.43 million), followed by East Asia and high-income North America. From 1990 to 2023, Eastern Europe exhibited the steepest long-term increases in age-standardized incidence, mortality, and DALYs rates, with an average annual percent change of 2.49% for incidence and 3.97% for mortality. Mortality and DALYs burdens peaked among women aged 65-69 years. Across regions, high fasting plasma glucose, high body mass index, and low physical activity were the leading contributors to disease burden. Distinct regional risk patterns were observed, including air pollution in Asia, unhealthy dietary patterns in high-income North America, sedentary behavior in Oceania, and alcohol use in South Asia. Lower Quality-of-Care Index scores were strongly associated with higher mortality and DALYs rates, highlighting substantial inequities in diabetes care.

CONCLUSIONS

The escalating burden of T2DM among women aged 55 years or older reflects interactions between biological aging and metabolic, behavioral, and environmental risks. Age-targeted prevention, improved care quality, and mitigation of modifiable exposures are critical to reduce diabetes-related disability globally.