Temporal mortality trends of alcohol-induced hypertension among adults in the US from 1999-2020, and forecasts up to 2030.

Background

Alcohol-induced hypertension (HTN) is linked to a 2.3-fold increase in cardiovascular-related death.

Objective

We aimed to identify temporal trends in alcohol-induced HTN mortality among United States (US) adults stratified by year, sex, age, race, and region.

Methods

Data on alcohol-induced HTN mortality among adults (≥25 years) in the US from 1999 to 2020 were extracted from the CDC WONDER database, utilizing ICD-10 codes. Crude (CMRs) and age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) were calculated. Temporal trends in AAMRs were assessed using Joinpoint regression. Mortality forecasts through 2030 were generated using the ARIMA model in STATA software (version 17.0).

Results

From 1999 to 2020, 50,793 alcohol-induced HTN-related deaths were recorded in the US, with an overall AAMR of 0.858 per 100,000. The AAMR increased from 0.279 (95% CI: 0.257-0.302) in 1999 to 1.348 (95% CI: 1.305-1.390) in 2018, rising further to 2.014 (95% CI: 1.963-2.066) in 2020. Mortality was higher in males (AAMR 2.16) than in females (0.55). The highest burden occurred among American Indians/Alaska Natives (AAMR 2.392), while the lowest was observed in Asians/Pacific Islanders (0.206). The Western region had the highest AAMR (1.116). CMR peaked among individuals aged 55-64 years (2.416), with slightly higher rates in rural areas. Forecast analysis projected the overall AAMR to increase from 2.01 in 2020 to 4.18 by 2030.

Conclusion

Rising mortality from alcohol-induced HTN highlights an urgent need for strengthened control policies for alcohol use, early identification of hazardous drinking, and integrated management of hypertension and alcohol use to reduce preventable cardiovascular mortality in the US.