Prostate Cancer in the MENA Region: Attributable Burden of Behavioral and Environmental Exposures.

BACKGROUND

Prostate cancer in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is shaped by a complex interplay of behavioral and environmental risk factors, yet comprehensive estimates of preventable cases remain scarce. To address this gap, we estimated population-attributable fractions (PAFs) for a range of modifiable exposures among men aged 50 years and older and assessed potential reductions in incidence under feasible intervention scenarios.

METHODS

Regional prevalence data were combined with relative risks from meta-analyses to compute closed-form PAFs for tobacco smoking, obesity, physical inactivity, high dairy and calcium intake, heavy alcohol use, drinking water nitrates, trihalomethanes, arsenic, lead, selenium status, ambient PM2.5 and NO2, and occupational diesel exhaust, covering an estimated 47 million men. Estimates were validated using a synthetic cohort simulation of 100,000 individuals, with uncertainty quantified through Monte Carlo sampling.

RESULTS

Results showed that drinking water nitrate exposure accounted for the largest single fraction (17.4%), followed by tobacco smoking (9.5%), physical inactivity (6.7%), and trihalomethane exposure (5.0%), while other exposures contributed smaller but meaningful shares. Joint elimination of all exposures projected a 45.5% reduction in incidence, and simultaneous feasible reductions in four targeted exposures yielded a combined potential impact fraction of 12.1%.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that integrated water quality management, tobacco control, lifestyle interventions, and targeted environmental surveillance should be prioritized to reduce prostate cancer burden in the MENA region. However, estimates of drinking-water nitrate exposure rely on limited evidence from a single case-control study with a relatively small sample size, and should therefore be considered exploratory and primarily hypothesis-generating.