The Burden of 17 Digestive Diseases and Risk-attributable Burden: Findings from the 2021 Global Burden of Diseases Study and Forecasts for 2030 by Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.

BACKGROUND

Digestive diseases affect patient health while highlighting challenges in socioeconomic development and health care system accessibility and efficiency. This analysis offers insights into digestive disease control by examining the burden, identifying risk factors, and forecasting trends to 2030.

METHODS

Using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data to assess the burden of 17 digestive diseases, we analyzed incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). We analyzed the historical trends and their burden attributable to Level 1 and 2 risk factors. We conducted a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analysis to forecast trends to 2030.

RESULTS

In 2021, enteric infections were the primary contributors to age-standardized incidence, mortality, and DALYs rates within digestive diseases, while cirrhosis accounted for the highest prevalence rate. The DALYs attributable to risk factors were estimated at 4.01 million for males and 1.01 million for females. The leading Level 2 risk factor was poor sanitation. Alcohol use, tobacco, and high BMI are shared risk factors contributing to DALYs. We project a decline in incidence rate among females to 2030, accompanied by a rise in prevalence.

CONCLUSIONS

Although mortality and DALYs will decrease, digestive diseases such as enteric infections and cirrhosis remain critical challenges, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Governments must prioritize the management of risk factors and strengthen pandemic preparedness to alleviate future strain.