Spatio-Temporal Pattern and Socio-Economic Factors of Bacillary Dysentery at County Level in Sichuan Province, China.

Bacillary dysentery (BD) remains a big public health problem in China. Effective spatio-temporal monitoring of BD incidence is important for successful implementation of control and prevention measures. This study aimed to examine the spatio-temporal pattern of BD and analyze socio-economic factors that may affect BD incidence in Sichuan province, China. Firstly, we used space-time scan statistic to detect the high risk spatio-temporal clusters in each year. Then, bivariate spatial correlation and Bayesian spatio-temporal model were utilized to examine the associations between the socio-economic factors and BD incidence. Spatio-temporal clusters of BD were mainly located in the northern-southern belt of the midwest area of Sichuan province. The proportion of primary industry, the proportion of rural population and the rates of BD incidence show statistically significant positive correlation. The proportion of secondary industry, proportion of tertiary Industry, number of beds in hospitals per thousand persons, medical and technical personnel per thousand persons, per capital GDP and the rate of BD incidence show statistically significant negative correlation. The best fitting spatio-temporal model showed that medical and technical personnel per thousand persons and per capital GDP were significantly negative related to the risk of BD.