Large emission mitigation potential from sequencing fossil fuel extraction infrastructure retirement in China.

China's fossil fuel infrastructure could lock in substantial emissions across both extraction and downstream use, making a well-defined phaseout strategy urgent for achieving carbon neutrality. We analyze the differences between the current retirement strategy and the proposed emission-oriented retirement sequencing strategy by quantifying the emission mitigation effect, employment benefit, and cost-saving advantage of strategies. We show that China's fossil fuel emissions totaled 9,850 MtCO2e in 2023 and are projected to reach 98.9-148.5 GtCO2e cumulatively during 2024-2050 under existing plans across energy-demand scenarios. Strategically sequencing retirements could avoid a cumulative 3.8-4.8 GtCO2e by 2050, more than annual European emissions, while simultaneously increasing employment by 4-6 million full-time equivalent-years and reducing net total system costs by 245-507 billion CNY (around 34-71 billion USD). These results highlight the climate, economic, and social benefits of sequencing-based phaseout strategies.