Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2015
Development and validation of a clinical score for predicting risk of adenoma at screening colonoscopy.
Клиническое исследование I фазыКлиническое исследование II фазыСтатьяМногоцентровое исследованиеРандомизированное исследованиеПоддержка NIH: внешняя программаПоддержка исследования: вне правительства СШАПоддержка правительства СШАВалидационное исследованиеНазвание и аннотация: Перевод в очереди
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Shaukat Aasma, Church Timothy R, Shanley Ryan, Kauff Noah D, O'Brien Michael J, Mills Glenn M, Jordan Paul A, Allen John A, Kim Adam, Feld Andrew D, Zauber Ann Graham, Winawer Sidney J
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: Currently, no clinical tools use demographic and risk factor information to predict the risk of finding an adenoma in individuals undergoing colon cancer screening. Such a tool would be valuable for identifying those who would most benefit from screening colonoscopy.
METHODS: We used baseline data from men and women who underwent screening colonoscopy from the randomized, multicenter National Colonoscopy Study (NCS) to develop and validate an adenoma risk model. The study, conducted at three sites in the United States (Minneapolis, MN; Seattle, WA; and Shreveport, LA) asked all participants to complete baseline questionnaires on clinical risk factors and family history. Model parameters estimated from logistic regression yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC) used to assess prediction.
RESULTS: Five hundred forty-one subjects were included in the development model, and 1,334 in the validation of the risk score. Variables in the prediction of adenoma risk for colonoscopy screening were age (likelihood ratio test for overall contribution to model, P < 0.001), male sex (P < 0.001), body mass index (P < 0.001), family history of at least one first-degree relative with colorectal cancer (P = 0.036), and smoking history (P < 0.001). The adjusted AUROCC of 0.67 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.61-0.74] for the derivation cohort was not statistically significantly different from that in the validation cohort. The adjusted AUROCC for the entire cohort was 0.64 (95% CI, 0.60-0.67).
CONCLUSION: We developed and validated a simple well-calibrated risk score.
IMPACT: This tool may be useful for estimating risk of adenomas in screening eligible men and women.
METHODS: We used baseline data from men and women who underwent screening colonoscopy from the randomized, multicenter National Colonoscopy Study (NCS) to develop and validate an adenoma risk model. The study, conducted at three sites in the United States (Minneapolis, MN; Seattle, WA; and Shreveport, LA) asked all participants to complete baseline questionnaires on clinical risk factors and family history. Model parameters estimated from logistic regression yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC) used to assess prediction.
RESULTS: Five hundred forty-one subjects were included in the development model, and 1,334 in the validation of the risk score. Variables in the prediction of adenoma risk for colonoscopy screening were age (likelihood ratio test for overall contribution to model, P < 0.001), male sex (P < 0.001), body mass index (P < 0.001), family history of at least one first-degree relative with colorectal cancer (P = 0.036), and smoking history (P < 0.001). The adjusted AUROCC of 0.67 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.61-0.74] for the derivation cohort was not statistically significantly different from that in the validation cohort. The adjusted AUROCC for the entire cohort was 0.64 (95% CI, 0.60-0.67).
CONCLUSION: We developed and validated a simple well-calibrated risk score.
IMPACT: This tool may be useful for estimating risk of adenomas in screening eligible men and women.