Stability and bifurcation of Mpox transmission model with population heterogeneity and booster vaccination.

In this paper, we consider a novel mpox virus transmission model with human interactions, hospitalization rates, vaccination coverage (single-dose and two-dose), and vaccine efficacy, where the susceptible individuals are divided into low-risk and high-risk groups, and infected individuals are divided into asymptomatic and symptomatic groups. First, the existence, uniqueness, and continuous dependence on initial conditions, as well as the positivity and boundedness of solutions, are investigated. Then, the existence and local stability of all equilibria, the basic reproduction number, and forward and backward bifurcations are given. Next, the sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number and the model is showed in the parameter space. Finally, numerical simulations are presented based on data from the Democratic Republic of Congo. These results show that increasing hospitalization rates and vaccination coverage (especially for the second dose), and reducing vaccine waning significantly reduce mpox cases in the above country, offering effective disease control and prevention recommendations for public health strategies.