Behavior change and infection induced immunity led to the decline of the 2022 Mpox outbreak in Berlin.

BACKGROUND: Mpox denotes a viral zoonosis caused by the Orthopoxvirus monkeypox (MPXV), which is endemic in West and Central Africa. In spring 2022, notable outbreaks of MPXV clade IIb were recorded in several high-income countries, predominantly affecting men who have sex with men (MSM). At the peak of the outbreak, over 200 new mpox cases per week were reported in Berlin, which constitutes one of the largest MSM population in Europe. Within the same year, the outbreak significantly declined, and it is unclear which factors contributed to this rapid decrease.

METHODS: To investigate the concomitant effects of sexual contact networks, transient contact reductions and the effect of infection- vs. vaccine-derived immunity on the 2022 mpox outbreak, we calibrated an agent-based model with epidemic, vaccination, contact- and behavioral data.

RESULTS: Our results indicate that vaccination has a marginal effect on the epidemic decline. Rather, a combination of infection-induced immunity of high-contact individuals, as well as transient behavior changes reduce the number of susceptible individuals below the epidemic threshold. However, the 2022 mpox vaccination campaign, together with infection-derived immunity may contribute to herd-immunity in the Berlin MSM population against ongoing clade I mpox outbreaks. Demographic changes and immune waning may deteriorate this herd immunity over time.

CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight that, in addition to vaccination, timely and clear communication of transmission routes may trigger spontaneous protective behavior within key populations; underscoring the importance of targeted sexual health education as a core component of outbreak response.