Prospective evaluation of prognostic indicators for early recurrence of cutaneous melanoma.

The majority of melanomas are thin lesions with an excellent prognosis; however, significant tumor heterogeneity exists, and a small percentage of patients with early-stage disease may progress to metastatic recurrence. This study aimed to assess whether prognostic factors previously shown to be significant in predicting stage I and stage II melanoma recurrence were consistent in a large prospectively collected patient cohort, and to identify novel prognostic factors associated with early recurrence to inform follow-up protocols. There were 1029 patients with stage I and stage II melanoma included in the analysis, of whom 123 developed a recurrence during follow-up (median 2.13 years). Multivariable analysis identified ulceration, presence of mitoses, Clark level, presence of lymphovascular invasion, and a history of autoimmune disease as factors independently associated with recurrence. These data identified patients with stage I-II melanoma with very low-risk for recurrence: no ulceration, zero mitoses, a low Clark level, no lymphovascular invasion, and possibly no history of autoimmune disease. These patients do not require intensive follow-up: 12 monthly reviews and full skin checks may be appropriate. Ongoing research into prognostic factors for recurrence in early-stage melanoma is important.