Drug and alcohol review · 2026
Trends in Prevalence of Opioid Dependence in Scotland 2014-2023: Multi-Parameter Estimation of Prevalence.
СтатьяНазвание и аннотация: Перевод в очереди
Обработка статьи · этапы, ошибки и управление
Загрузка состояния…
Ошибки и ограничения
История · было → стало
Состояние обновляется каждые 5 секунд, пока блок открыт. Процент показывается только там, где известен объём работы. Пауза останавливает продолжение этапа; текущий запрос к источнику может завершиться.
Markoulidakis Andreas, Hickman Matthew, Glancy Megan, McAuley Andrew, Barnsdale Lee R, Shivaji Tara, Collins Craig, Lang Jaroslaw, de Wit Femke, Hunt Gordon, Hutchinson Sharon J, Degenhardt Louisa, Jones Hayley E
Аннотация
INTRODUCTION: Scotland remains in the midst of a public health crisis driven by drug-related deaths, with rates reaching 2.0 per 100 person-years in 2020-22. Estimates of the prevalence of opioid dependence are critical for supporting policy decisions and better understanding the factors behind this rise.
METHODS: We applied a Bayesian multi-parameter estimation of prevalence approach to estimate the prevalence of opioid dependence from 2014/15 to 2023/24. We used linked opioid agonist therapy prescriptions, mortality and hospital admission data from the Substance Use and Health Intelligence Linked Dataset.
RESULTS: We estimate there were 43,600 (95% credible intervals 42,000-45,400) people with opioid dependence in Scotland in 2023/24, which is 1.13% (95% credible intervals 1.09%-1.18%) of those aged 15-69. Opioid agonist therapy coverage was estimated as 61%. Estimated prevalence was higher among those aged 50-69 (0.76%) than 15-34 (0.67%). Prevalence varied across regions, being highest in Greater Glasgow & Clyde (1.46%). Over the 10-year period, the estimated population size decreased by 4100 (95% credible intervals 6800 -1500).
DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: In Scotland, prevalence of opioid dependence remains high. There are signs of a modest decline but, notably, the reduction is less than the number of opioid-related poisoning deaths over the period modelled.
METHODS: We applied a Bayesian multi-parameter estimation of prevalence approach to estimate the prevalence of opioid dependence from 2014/15 to 2023/24. We used linked opioid agonist therapy prescriptions, mortality and hospital admission data from the Substance Use and Health Intelligence Linked Dataset.
RESULTS: We estimate there were 43,600 (95% credible intervals 42,000-45,400) people with opioid dependence in Scotland in 2023/24, which is 1.13% (95% credible intervals 1.09%-1.18%) of those aged 15-69. Opioid agonist therapy coverage was estimated as 61%. Estimated prevalence was higher among those aged 50-69 (0.76%) than 15-34 (0.67%). Prevalence varied across regions, being highest in Greater Glasgow & Clyde (1.46%). Over the 10-year period, the estimated population size decreased by 4100 (95% credible intervals 6800 -1500).
DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: In Scotland, prevalence of opioid dependence remains high. There are signs of a modest decline but, notably, the reduction is less than the number of opioid-related poisoning deaths over the period modelled.