Low morphometric complexity of emphysematous lesions predicts survival in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether morphometric complexity in the lung can predict survival and act as a new prognostic marker in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

METHODS: COPD (n = 302) patients were retrospectively reviewed. All patients underwent volumetric computed tomography and pulmonary function tests at enrollment (2005-2015). For complexity analysis, we applied power law exponent of the emphysema size distribution (Dsize) as well as box-counting fractal dimension (Dbox3D) analysis. Patients' survival at February 2017 was ascertained. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards analyses were performed, and prediction performances of various combinatorial models were compared.

RESULTS: Patients were 66 ± 6 years old, had 41 ± 28 pack-years' smoking history and variable GOLD stages (n = 20, 153, 108 and 21 in stages I-IV). The median follow-up time was 6.1 years (range: 0.2-11.6 years). Sixty-three patients (20.9%) died, of whom 35 died of lung-related causes. In univariate Cox analysis, lower Dsize and Dbox3D were significantly associated with both all-cause and lung-related mortality (both p < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, the backward elimination method demonstrated that Dbox3D, along with age and the BODE index, was an independent predictor of survival (p = 0.014; HR, 2.08; 95% CI, 1.16-3.71). The contributions of Dsize and Dbox3D to the combinatorial survival model were comparable with those of the emphysema index and lung-diffusing capacity.

CONCLUSIONS: Low morphometric complexity in the lung is a predictor of survival in patients with COPD.

KEY POINTS: • A newly suggested method for quantifying lung morphometric complexity is feasible. • Morphometric complexity measured on chest CT images predicts COPD patients' survival. • Complexity, diffusing capacity and emphysema index contribute similarly to the survival model.