Estimating waning immunity against classical swine fever virus among adult wild boar: A case study in Japan.

Bait vaccination against classical swine fever virus (CSFV) among wild boar in Japan started in 2019 and has continued so far. While the proportion of immune individuals increased in the early phase of the CSFV epidemic, this proportion tended to decrease in some regions, even after the subsequent vaccination. Turnover of wild boar populations can reduce the proportion of immune individuals; however, the decrease was also observed among adult wild boar during the season when the influence of turnover was negligible. Waning immunity is hypothesized as an alternative mechanism. This study aimed to test the hypothesis of waning immunity and estimate the waning rate among wild boar. A mathematical model describing CSFV transmission dynamics, host population dynamics, effect of vaccination, and waning immunity was constructed. We also constructed a model without waning immunity. The two models were fitted to a time-series of the proportion of recovered/vaccinated animals (i.e., ELISA-positive and PCR-negative) among adult wild boar in Gifu, Japan, assuming that the influence of turnover was negligible from July to November. The hypothesis that immunity against CSFV can wane is accepted; the model with waning immunity showed a significantly better fit compared to another model. The time until ELISA test results became negative after recovery/vaccination was estimated to be 26.6 weeks. Our results imply that the acquired immunity against CSFV and bait vaccination wanes over time. The level of herd immunity after vaccination against CSFV should be evaluated taking the waning immunity into account.