Progression Rates by Age, Sex, Treatment, and Disease Activity by AASLD and EASL Criteria: Data for Precision Medicine.
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Park Jiyoon, Le An K, Tseng Tai-Chung, Yeh Ming-Lun, Jun Dae Won, Trinh Huy, Wong Grace L H, Chen Chien-Hung, Peng Cheng-Yuan, Kim Sung Eun, Oh Hyunwoo, Kwak Min-Sun, Cheung Ka Shing, Toyoda Hidenori, Hsu Yao-Chun, Jeong Jae Yoon, Yoon Eileen L, Ungtrakul Teerapat, Zhang Jian, Xie Qing, Ahn Sang Bong, Enomoto Masaru, Shim Jae-Jun, Cunningham Chris, Jeong Soung Won, Cho Yong Kyun, Ogawa Eiichi, Huang Rui, Lee Dong-Hyun, Takahashi Hirokazu, Tsai Pei-Chien, Huang Chung-Feng, Dai Chia-Yen, Tseng Cheng-Hao, Yasuda Satoshi, Kozuka Ritsuzo, Li Jiayi, Wong Christopher, Wong Clifford C, Zhao Changqing, Hoang Joseph, Eguchi Yuichiro, Wu Chao, Tanaka Yasuhito, Gane Ed, Tanwandee Tawesak, Cheung Ramsey, Yuen Man-Fung, Lee Hyo-Suk, Yu Ming-Lung, Kao Jia-Horng, Yang Hwai-I, Nguyen Mindie H
Аннотация
METHODS: We analyzed 18,338 patients (8914 treated, 9424 untreated) from 6 centers from the United States and 27 centers from Asia-Pacific countries. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate annual progression rates to cirrhosis or HCC in person-years.
RESULTS: The cohort was 63% male, with a mean age of 46.19 years, with baseline cirrhosis of 14.3% and median follow up of 9.60 years. By American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases criteria, depending on age, sex, and disease activity, annual incidence rates ranged from 0.07% to 3.94% for cirrhosis, from 0.04% to 2.19% for HCC in patients without cirrhosis, and from 0.40% to 8.83% for HCC in patients with cirrhosis. Several subgroups of patients without cirrhosis including males younger than 40 years of age and females younger than 50 years of age had annual HCC risk near or exceeding 0.2%. Similar results were found using European Association for the Study of the Liver criteria.
CONCLUSION: There is great variability in CHB disease progression rates even among "lower-risk" populations. Future CHB modeling studies, public health planning, and HCC surveillance recommendation should be based on more precise disease progression rates based on sex, age, and disease activity, plus treatment status.