A surrogate endpoint-based provisional approval causal roadmap, illustrated by vaccine development.

For many rare diseases with no approved preventive interventions, promising interventions exist. However, it has proven difficult to conduct a pivotal phase 3 trial that could provide direct evidence demonstrating a beneficial effect of the intervention on the target disease outcome. When a promising putative surrogate endpoint(s) for the target outcome is available, surrogate-based provisional approval of an intervention may be pursued. Following the general Causal Roadmap rubric, we describe a surrogate endpoint-based provisional approval causal roadmap. Based on an observational study data set and a phase 3 randomized trial data set, this roadmap defines an approach to analyze the combined data set to draw a conservative inference about the treatment effect (TE) on the target outcome in the phase 3 study population. The observational study enrolls untreated individuals and collects baseline covariates, surrogate endpoints, and the target outcome, and is used to estimate the surrogate index-the regression of the target outcome on the surrogate endpoints and baseline covariates. The phase 3 trial randomizes participants to treated vs. untreated and collects the same data but is much smaller and hence very underpowered to directly assess TE, such that inference on TE is based on the surrogate index. This inference is made conservative by specifying 2 bias functions: one that expresses an imperfection of the surrogate index as a surrogate endpoint in the phase 3 study, and the other that expresses imperfect transport of the surrogate index in the untreated from the observational to the phase 3 study. Plug-in and nonparametric efficient one-step estimators of TE, with inferential procedures, are developed. The finite-sample performance of the estimators is evaluated in simulation studies. The causal roadmap is motivated by and illustrated with contemporary Group B Streptococcus vaccine development.