An experience sampling study on the nature of the interaction between traumatic experiences, negative affect in everyday life, and threat beliefs.

Research suggests that trauma is associated with the development of psychotic experiences, such as paranoia, via affective processes. However, the empirical evidence on the exact mechanism is limited and it is unclear which aspects of trauma are relevant. Here we tested whether self-reported frequency of trauma, recurring trauma, age, and type of trauma are predictive of later threat beliefs in daily life and which role affective processes (self-reported negative affect and autonomic arousal) play in this association. We tested two often postulated mechanisms: mediation, with affective processes in everyday life explaining the association between trauma and threat beliefs; and moderation, with trauma strengthening the association between affective processes and threat beliefs in everyday life. Trauma was assessed at baseline with the Trauma-History-Questionnaire in 67 individuals with attenuated symptoms of psychosis. We then applied the experience-sampling-method during 24 h to assess negative affect, heart rate and threat beliefs. Multilevel analysis showed that negative affect (p < 0.001) and heart rate (p < 0.05) were predictive of subsequent threat beliefs. There was no significant mediation effect from any trauma characteristic to threat beliefs via negative affect and heart rate. Trauma frequency (p < 0.001), age at first trauma (p < 0.001), as well as the presence of physical trauma (p < 0.001) moderated the path from negative affect to subsequent threat beliefs. Our findings indicate that more frequent trauma, trauma at young age and physical trauma strengthen the association from negative affect to threat beliefs and could be relevant to determining the extent of vulnerability to psychosis.