BMC infectious diseases · 2023
Possibility of mpox viral transmission and control from high-risk to the general population: a modeling study.
СтатьяНазвание и аннотация: Перевод в очереди
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Yang Shiting, Guo Xiaohao, Zhao Zeyu, Abudunaibi Buasiyamu, Zhao Yunkang, Rui Jia, Wang Yao, Song Wentao, Wei Hongjie, Chen Tianmu
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: Mpox is an emerging infectious disease that is now a global hazard. The strategies for preventing and controlling mpox should be further investigated in terms of transmission characteristics, infection risk among different populations, and ideal therapeutic approaches.
METHODS: A multi-group dynamic model was used to quantify the transmissibility of mpox. We further analyzed the transmission risk from men who have sex with men (MSM) to non-MSM and evaluated the effects of three intervention measures, including community-based prevention, early detection, and vaccination.
RESULTS: The median value of effective reproduction number (Reff) and probability of contact via a single contact (q) among MSM worldwide is 3.11 (interquartile range [IQR]: 2.82-5.57) and 2.15% (IQR: 1.95-3.84%). We found that the cumulative incidence rate of non-MSM is much lower than that of MSM (< 1/2048) when the possibility of infection (including the percentage of high-risk behaviors of contact degree [C] and q) was lowered to less than 1 in 100,000. When comparing the three intervention measures, if we want to control the cumulative incidence rate to 5.96 × 10-8 we need to increase the vaccine coverage to 81% or reduce the transmission rate factor (Cq) to 70% or shorten the transmission period to 74%.
CONCLUSIONS: Mpox has high transmissibility in MSM, which required minimize the risk of infection and exposure to high-risk populations. Community prevention and control is the top priority of interventions to contain the spread of mpox.
METHODS: A multi-group dynamic model was used to quantify the transmissibility of mpox. We further analyzed the transmission risk from men who have sex with men (MSM) to non-MSM and evaluated the effects of three intervention measures, including community-based prevention, early detection, and vaccination.
RESULTS: The median value of effective reproduction number (Reff) and probability of contact via a single contact (q) among MSM worldwide is 3.11 (interquartile range [IQR]: 2.82-5.57) and 2.15% (IQR: 1.95-3.84%). We found that the cumulative incidence rate of non-MSM is much lower than that of MSM (< 1/2048) when the possibility of infection (including the percentage of high-risk behaviors of contact degree [C] and q) was lowered to less than 1 in 100,000. When comparing the three intervention measures, if we want to control the cumulative incidence rate to 5.96 × 10-8 we need to increase the vaccine coverage to 81% or reduce the transmission rate factor (Cq) to 70% or shorten the transmission period to 74%.
CONCLUSIONS: Mpox has high transmissibility in MSM, which required minimize the risk of infection and exposure to high-risk populations. Community prevention and control is the top priority of interventions to contain the spread of mpox.