Measuring the excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Northern Territory, Australia.

This study aims to assess whether there was any excess mortality among the Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal populations in the Northern Territory (NT), Australia, during the COVID-19 pandemic. A time-series analysis using death data (1997-2023) was applied separately to the monthly and yearly death counts to develop an excess mortality surveillance model (using Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)) for the NT population. Excess mortality was calculated by comparing expected deaths with actual deaths. In 2022, there was a statistically significant excess mortality of 193 (p < 0.01), compared with 82 recorded COVID-19 deaths. Excess mortality was significant for both the Aboriginal (N = 91) and non-Aboriginal (N = 102) populations in 2022. Even though some months had significant excess mortality among both Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal populations, the recorded COVID-19 deaths were not high in these months. This was associated with the peak of COVID-19 fatalities. The ARIMA model demonstrates deviations from expected deaths and helps understand the pandemic's impact on the NT. Excess deaths occurred in 2022; however, no large spikes in most of the months suggest public health success in the NT.