TVISARS-CoV-2: a multicriteria index and urban dynamics in Minas Gerais, Brazil.

OBJECTIVE

To develop a municipal-level vulnerability index to COVID-19 transmission that integrates socioeconomic factors, urban infrastructure, mobility, and composite indicators of social vulnerability and leisure for Minas Gerais. This study found factors associated with the spatial distribution of COVID-19 and classified the 853 municipalities in the state by vulnerability levels.

METHODS

Data on COVID-19 cases from February 2022 were combined with nine variables in three domains: (i) socioeconomic factors (trade, service, construction, and manufacturing jobs); (ii) urban infrastructure and mobility (urban area, road connectivity, and vehicle density); and (iii) composite indicators (index of social vulnerability and access to culture, sports, and leisure). A multicriteria analysis model with Pearson's correlations was elaborated and validated by cross-validation.

RESULTS

The vulnerability index ranged from 1 to 8. The municipality of Belo Horizonte showed the highest value (8), followed by Uberlândia (6) and other medium to large municipalities with high urban dynamism. Urban area (22.92%), road connectivity (17.54%), and vehicle density (12.86%) constituted the most influential variables in the model. Spatial distribution indicated greater vulnerability in metropolitan regions and regional hubs.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed index highlighted the role of structural and occupational characteristics in territorial vulnerability to COVID-19. Limitations such as the time lag of some variables, source heterogeneity, and case underreporting-especially in municipalities with lower testing capacity-may have influenced the results. Incorporating emerging technologies and sustainable practices can mitigate the risks of future pandemics and improve quality of life. The index offered a useful tool for health planning (which may be adapted to other communicable diseases).