American journal of infection control · 2025
Mathematical model for nosocomial coronavirus infection disease 2019 transmission and patient isolation in hospital wards: A modeling study.
СтатьяПоддержка исследования: вне правительства СШАНазвание и аннотация: Перевод пока не подготовлен
Обработка статьи · этапы, ошибки и управление
Загрузка состояния…
Ошибки и ограничения
История · было → стало
Состояние обновляется каждые 5 секунд, пока блок открыт. Процент показывается только там, где известен объём работы. Пауза останавливает продолжение этапа; текущий запрос к источнику может завершиться.
Umekage Yasuhiro, Shigaki Ryota, Kida Ryotaro, Yoshida Ryohei, Minami Yoshinori, Ohsaki Yoshinobu, Sasaki Takaaki
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: Considering the isolation of infected patients and the proportion of critically ill individuals requiring single-room management is crucial when implementing public health measures during nosocomial outbreaks such as coronavirus disease-2019. Using a mathematical model, we aimed to assess the level of hospital occupancy restriction required for the adequate isolation of infected and exposed patients while providing for critically ill patients requiring single-room management.
METHODS: Patients were categorized into four groups: susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered. We modeled a hospital ward with mixed room types, incorporating critically ill patients and sporadic unidentified infections, to evaluate isolation feasibility through simulations.
RESULTS: Simulation results showed that patient isolation became difficult under high-occupancy conditions. The feasibility was also affected by infection control strategies, such as discharging infected or exposed patients and isolating exposed individuals in single rooms.
DISCUSSION: Higher occupancy increases the risk of failed isolation measures, potentially promoting in-hospital transmission. However, this model does not incorporate long-distance airborne transmission or the effects of ventilation, and coronavirus disease-2019 can spread via aerosols.
CONCLUSIONS: This model could be a valuable reference for determining appropriate hospital occupancy rates to ensure effective infection control during nosocomial outbreaks.
METHODS: Patients were categorized into four groups: susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered. We modeled a hospital ward with mixed room types, incorporating critically ill patients and sporadic unidentified infections, to evaluate isolation feasibility through simulations.
RESULTS: Simulation results showed that patient isolation became difficult under high-occupancy conditions. The feasibility was also affected by infection control strategies, such as discharging infected or exposed patients and isolating exposed individuals in single rooms.
DISCUSSION: Higher occupancy increases the risk of failed isolation measures, potentially promoting in-hospital transmission. However, this model does not incorporate long-distance airborne transmission or the effects of ventilation, and coronavirus disease-2019 can spread via aerosols.
CONCLUSIONS: This model could be a valuable reference for determining appropriate hospital occupancy rates to ensure effective infection control during nosocomial outbreaks.