Explainable Machine Learning for Detecting Pancreatic Cancer from Structured Endoscopic Ultrasound Data: A Retrospective Multicenter Observational Study.

Background

Machine learning (ML) is increasingly applied in medicine, underscoring the need for transparent and clinically relevant models. In gastrointestinal oncology, most ML studies rely on raw imaging data, which limits clinical adoption due to poor interpretability and the difficulty of collecting high-quality, large-scale video and image datasets in routine practice. Endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) plays a central role in the evaluation of pancreatic cancer; however, structured EUS features remain underused in predictive modeling.

Objective

To assess the performance and interpretability of ML models for diagnosing pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) using routinely collected EUS variables.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective multicenter study using data from two Italian hospitals (n = 641) for model training and internal validation and from a third hospital (n = 120) for external validation, collected from 2015 to 2023. Decision trees, random forests, naïve Bayes and other classifiers were developed and evaluated. Model performance was assessed in terms of discriminative ability, calibration, and selective prediction.

Results

All models demonstrated high discriminative performance (AUC ≥ 0.90). Decision trees provided the most favorable balance between interpretability and accuracy (balanced accuracy = 0.87; sensitivity = 0.89). Calibration and selective prediction analyses confirmed the robustness of the models.

Conclusions

These findings demonstrate the feasibility of implementing interpretable yet high-performing ML models for PDAC diagnosis in real-life endoscopic settings.