Factors Associated with Early Rebleeding After Endoscopic Variceal Ligation in Cirrhotic Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

Background: Early rebleeding after endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL) represents a serious complication in patients with cirrhosis and is associated with poor short-term outcomes. This study aimed to identify independent predictors of early rebleeding after EVL, with a particular focus on distinguishing factors associated with variceal rebleeding from those related to post-banding ulcer (PBU) bleeding, and to assess predictors of six-week mortality. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study including 217 cirrhotic patients who underwent first emergency EVL for an index episode of esophageal variceal bleeding at a tertiary referral center. Early rebleeding was defined as recurrent upper gastrointestinal bleeding occurring between days 6 and 42 after the index EVL. Results: Early rebleeding occurred in 38/217 patients (17.5%): 27/38 (71.1%) variceal rebleeding and 11/38 (28.9%) PBU rebleeding. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, lower hemoglobin (OR = 0.19, 95% CI: 0.067-0.539, p = 0.002) and a higher albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade (OR = 24.94, 95% CI: 1.134-548.342, p = 0.041) were independently associated with increased odds of early variceal rebleeding, whereas a higher number of bands applied during index EVL (OR = 0.52, 95% CI: 0.302-0.896, p = 0.019) was independently associated with reduced odds of rebleeding, with excellent model discrimination (area under the curve [AUC] 0.981; 95% CI: 0.959-1.000). For PBU rebleeding, lower fibrinogen level was the only independent predictor (OR = 0.957, 95% CI: 0.916-1.000, p = 0.047), with strong discriminative performance (AUC 0.945; 95% CI: 0.909-0.982). Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, serum albumin, platelet count, and PBU rebleeding independently predicted six-week mortality. Conclusions: Markers of liver function, along with endoscopic parameters, predict early rebleeding after EVL, emphasizing the importance of the complete assessment of cirrhotic patients for refined risk stratification and tailored post-EVL management.