European journal of radiology · 2026
VIPs outperforms established models for predicting post-TIPS prognosis in viral hepatitis-dominant cirrhosis.
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Gao Zhongsong, Zhang Kun, Li Bo, Zhang Zhaogang, Zhang Hengtao, Zhang Xin, Feng Bo, Wang Ruihang, Shen Wen, Jia Kefeng
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) manages portal hypertension complications in cirrhosis, but predicting post-TIPS outcomes remains challenging, especially in viral hepatitis-dominated populations.
PURPOSE: To systematically evaluate the predictive performance of the novel Viral-Associated Index of Post-TIPS Score (VIPs) for post-TIPS prognosis. We also comprehensively compare it with six established clinical prognostic models and one imaging-based model (the spleen volume-based model, SvBM).
MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 247 cirrhotic patients undergoing TIPS (56.7 % viral hepatitis). Baseline data calculated prognostic scores (VIPs, MELD, MELD-Na, FIPS, Child-Pugh, ALBI, MOTS, and SvBM). The primary endpoint was transplant-free survival (TFS). Discrimination was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) at 6, 12, 36, and 60 months post-TIPS. Calibration (Brier score), explanatory power (R2), and decision curve analysis (DCA) were also evaluated.
RESULTS: VIPs demonstrated good-to-moderate discrimination for TFS, with AUROCs (95 % CI) of 0.794 (0.689-0.899), 0.753 (0.649-0.858), 0.721 (0.645-0.797), and 0.692 (0.617-0.767) at 6, 12, 36, and 60 months, respectively. This advantage was most pronounced in the viral hepatitis subgroup, with AUROCs ranging from 0.699 (0.603-0.796) to 0.822 (0.715-0.930) across follow-up. VIPs significantly outperformed Child-Pugh, ALBI, FIPS, MOTS and SvBM at all timepoints (all p < 0.05), and surpassed MELD and MELD-Na for long-term predictions (36/60 months, both p < 0.05). It also exhibited the best calibration (lowest Brier scores: 0.076-0.217) and the highest explanatory power (R2 = 0.121-0.142). Subgroup analyses further confirmed robust performance in females and patients with variceal bleeding.
CONCLUSIONS: VIPs demonstrates superior predictive accuracy for post-TIPS survival in a viral hepatitis-dominated cohort and may serve as a preferred prognostic tool to guide individualized decision-making.
PURPOSE: To systematically evaluate the predictive performance of the novel Viral-Associated Index of Post-TIPS Score (VIPs) for post-TIPS prognosis. We also comprehensively compare it with six established clinical prognostic models and one imaging-based model (the spleen volume-based model, SvBM).
MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 247 cirrhotic patients undergoing TIPS (56.7 % viral hepatitis). Baseline data calculated prognostic scores (VIPs, MELD, MELD-Na, FIPS, Child-Pugh, ALBI, MOTS, and SvBM). The primary endpoint was transplant-free survival (TFS). Discrimination was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) at 6, 12, 36, and 60 months post-TIPS. Calibration (Brier score), explanatory power (R2), and decision curve analysis (DCA) were also evaluated.
RESULTS: VIPs demonstrated good-to-moderate discrimination for TFS, with AUROCs (95 % CI) of 0.794 (0.689-0.899), 0.753 (0.649-0.858), 0.721 (0.645-0.797), and 0.692 (0.617-0.767) at 6, 12, 36, and 60 months, respectively. This advantage was most pronounced in the viral hepatitis subgroup, with AUROCs ranging from 0.699 (0.603-0.796) to 0.822 (0.715-0.930) across follow-up. VIPs significantly outperformed Child-Pugh, ALBI, FIPS, MOTS and SvBM at all timepoints (all p < 0.05), and surpassed MELD and MELD-Na for long-term predictions (36/60 months, both p < 0.05). It also exhibited the best calibration (lowest Brier scores: 0.076-0.217) and the highest explanatory power (R2 = 0.121-0.142). Subgroup analyses further confirmed robust performance in females and patients with variceal bleeding.
CONCLUSIONS: VIPs demonstrates superior predictive accuracy for post-TIPS survival in a viral hepatitis-dominated cohort and may serve as a preferred prognostic tool to guide individualized decision-making.