Nomogram to predict central lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid carcinoma.

Central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) is common. In our study, we built a nomogram to predict CLNM. We retrospectively analyzed 1,392 PTC patients. This group of patients was divided into a training cohort (including 1,009 patients) and a validation cohort (including 383 patients). Analyses of the correlation between inflammatory indicators, ultrasonic characteristics, pathological characteristics and CLNM were conducted. In the training cohort and validation cohort, the metastatic rates of CLNM were 60.16% and 64.23%, respectively. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses demonstrated that Hashimoto's thyroiditis (HT), calcification, multifocality, capsule invasion, PLR (platelet-lymphocyte ratio) ≤ 130.34, large tumors and middle and lower positions were independent risk factors for CLNM. Then, we constructed a nomogram. The nomogram had good discrimination regardless of whether there was CLNM, with a C-index of 0.809. The calibration curve indicated that the nomogram had good visual and quantitative consistency (p = 0.213). Decision curve analysis showed that the nomogram improved the net clinical benefit with a threshold probability of 0-82% in the training cohort and 0-71% in the validation cohort. We constructed a nomogram to predict CLNM in PTC and assist surgeons in making personalized clinical decisions for PTC.