Trends in the Disease Burden of Migraine Among Women of Reproductive Age (15-49 Years) in Low- and Middle-Income Countries, 1990-2023.

PURPOSE: Migraine disproportionately affects women of reproductive age (15-49 years) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This study comprehensively evaluates the trends in migraine burden in this vulnerable population between 1990 and 2023.

PATIENTS AND

METHODS

Using data from the Global Burden of Disease studies 1990-2023, we estimated the burden of migraine, including the number of incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), among reproductive-age women in LMICs. The analytical approaches included trend analysis (estimated annual percentage change), decomposition analysis, correlation analysis with Socio-demographic Index and Gross National Income, and forecasting using autoregressive integrated moving average models.

RESULTS

Between 1990 and 2023, migraine burden increased significantly among women aged 15-49 in LMICs. Prevalent cases, incident cases, and DALYs rose by approximately 67%, 61%, and 68%, respectively. This increase was most marked in upper-middle-income countries. Decomposition analysis identified population growth as the predominant driver, accounting for 52% to 108% of the increase across metrics, whereas epidemiological changes exacerbated the burden in upper-middle-income settings. ARIMA modeling projected a continued rise in DALYs through 2050.

CONCLUSION

Our model-based analysis estimates a substantial increase in the burden of migraine among reproductive-age women in LMICs. The variation in key drivers across income levels underscores the need for stratified public health strategies to mitigate this growing neurological disorder.