A Machine Learning Model to Predict Postoperative Speech Recognition Outcomes in Cochlear Implant Recipients: Development, Validation, and Comparison with Expert Clinical Judgment.

Background/

Objectives

Cochlear implantation (CI) significantly enhances speech perception and quality of life in patients with severe-to-profound sensorineural hearing loss, yet outcomes vary substantially. Accurate preoperative prediction of CI outcomes remains challenging. This study aimed to develop and validate a machine learning model predicting postoperative speech recognition using a large, single-center dataset. Additionally, we compared model performance with expert clinical predictions to evaluate potential clinical utility.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed data from 2571 adult patients with postlingual hearing loss who received their cochlear implant between 2000 and 2022 at Hannover Medical School, Germany. A decision tree regression model was trained to predict monosyllabic (MS) word recognition score one to two years post-implantation using preoperative clinical variables (age, duration of deafness, preoperative MS score, pure tone average, onset type, and contralateral implantation status). Model evaluation was performed using a random data split (10%), a chronological future cohort (patients implanted after 2020), and a subset where experienced audiologists predicted outcomes for comparison.

Results

The model achieved a mean absolute error (MAE) of 17.3% on the random test set and 17.8% on the chronological test set, demonstrating robust predictive performance over time. Compared to expert audiologist predictions, the model showed similar accuracy (MAE: 19.1% for the model vs. 18.9% for experts), suggesting comparable effectiveness.

Conclusions

Our machine learning model reliably predicts postoperative speech outcomes and matches expert clinical predictions, highlighting its potential for supporting clinical decision-making. Future research should include external validation and prospective trials to further confirm clinical applicability.