Estimation of the size of the vCJD epidemic.

Estimates of the final size of the variant Creuzfeldt-Jakob Disease epidemic have been made by fitting theoretical curves of the incubation period distribution to the histogram of observed annual deaths to 2002, using various assumptions of the mean and standard deviation of this distribution, and also of the efficacy of the Specified Bovine Offals ban of 1989. Unless the mean incubation time is greater than 15 to 20 years the estimates lie in the low hundreds to about a thousand, and the most likely situation, of a mean between 11 and 15 years, gives estimates of about 150 to 500 deaths. Numbers above a few thousands would only occur if the mean incubation period is of the order of 25 to 30 years and reasons are adduced to indicate this is very unlikely. These numbers are not greatly increased if the ban was poorly observed. This method of analysis may be applicable to other situations where a cause that is limited in space and time is expected to have late effects.