A prediction rule for elderly primary-care patients with lower respiratory tract infections.

Prognostic scores for lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) have been mainly derived in a hospital setting. The current authors have developed and validated a prediction rule for the prognosis of acute LRTI in elderly primary-care patients. Data including demographics, medication use, healthcare use and comorbid conditions from 3,166 episodes of patients aged > or =65 yrs visiting the general practitioner (GP) with LRTI were collected. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to construct a predictive model. The main outcome measure was 30-day hospitalisation or death. The Second Dutch Survey of GPs was used for validation. The following were independent predictors of 30-day hospitalisation or death: increasing age; previous hospitalisation; heart failure; diabetes; use of oral glucocorticoids; previous use of antibiotics; a diagnosis of pneumonia; and exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. A prediction rule based on these variables showed that the outcome increased directly with increasing scores: 3, 10 and 31% for scores of <2 points, 3-6 and > or =7 points, respectively. Corresponding figures for the validation cohort were 3, 11 and 26%, respectively. This simple prediction rule can help the primary-care physician to differentiate between high- and low-risk patients. As a possible consequence, low-risk patients may be suitable for home treatment, whereas high-risk patients might be monitored more closely in a homecare or hospital setting. Future studies should assess whether information on signs and symptoms can further improve this prediction rule.