Using scenario tree modelling to evaluate the probability of freedom from Enzootic bovine leukosis (EBL) in Italy and Slovenia.

Documented freedom from disease is paramount for international free trade of animals and animal products. This study describes a scenario tree analysis to estimate the probability of freedom from Enzootic bovine leukosis (EBL) in Italy and Slovenia using information gathered via the data collection tool developed in the COST action project SOUND-control. Data on EBL control programmes (CPs) from 2018 to 2021 were used to build the models. Since animals are only sampled on the farm, one surveillance system component (SSC) was considered. The posterior probability of freedom (PostPfree) was estimated in time steps of one year, from 2018 to 2021.  After each year, the calculated from the previous year, combined with the probability of introduction, was used as a prior probability for the next year.  The herd level design prevalence was set to 0.2% in accordance with the Council Directive 64/432/EEC and the within herd design prevalence was set to 15%.  As Slovenia implemented a risk-based surveillance, targeting the herds importing cattle, in its model the design herd prevalence was combined with an average adjusted risk to calculate the effective probability of a herd importing cattle being infected.  The models were run for 10,000 iterations.  Over the study period the mean estimates were: i) for Italy both the surveillance system sensitivity ( SSe) and PostPFree 100%, with no differences between simulations and years, ii) for Slovenia the SSe was 50.5% while the PostPFree was 81.6%.