Localized pleural plaques and lung cancer.

In a mass chest radiography survey conducted in 1971 for 7,986 residents of three Finnish communities, 604 subjects (7.6%) with pleural plaques but not other asbestos-related radiographic signs were identified. The same number of referents, each individually matched to each plaque carrier on sex, birth year, and community, was selected from among persons in the same source population with no pleural plaques. The two groups were followed for investigation of incidence of lung cancer during 1972-1989. Twenty-eight of those with plaques and 25 referents contracted lung cancer (crude conditional RR = 1.1; CL95 = 0.7, 1.9). The application of the proportional hazards model, with adjustment for sex, age, and residence, resulted in a hazard ratio of 1.1 (CL = 0.6, 1.8). The risk ratio estimate may be biased; hence, the result is inconclusive in regard to the predictive assessment of lung cancer risk among carriers of pleural plaques.