JACC. Clinical electrophysiology · 2020
Risk Prediction Model for Cardiac Implantable Electronic Device Implantation After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement.
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Tsushima Takahiro, Nadeem Fahd, Al-Kindi Sadeer, Clevenger Joshua R, Bansal Eric J, Wheat Heather L, Kalra Ankur, Attizzani Guilherme F, Elgudin Yakov, Markowitz Alan, Costa Marco A, Simon Daniel I, Arruda Mauricio S, Mackall Judith A, Thal Sergio G
Аннотация
OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to develop and validate a risk prediction model for high-grade atrioventricular block requiring cardiac implantable electronic device (CIED) implantation after transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR).
BACKGROUND: High-grade atrioventricular block requiring CIED remains a significant sequelae following TAVR. Although several pre-operative characteristics have been associated with the risk of post-operative CIED implantation, an accurate and validated risk prediction model is not established yet.
METHODS: This was a single center, retrospective study of consecutive patients who underwent TAVR from March 10, 2011, to October 8, 2018. This cohort sample was randomly divided into a derivation cohort (group A) and a validation cohort (group B). A scoring system for risk prediction of post-TAVR CIED implantation was devised using logistic regression estimates in group A and the calibration and validation were done in group B.
RESULTS: A total of 1,071 patients underwent TAVR during the study period. After excluding pre-existing CIED, a total of 888 cases were analyzed (group A: 507 and group B: 381). Independent predictive variables were as follows: self-expanding valve (1 point), hypertension (1 point), pre-existing first-degree atrioventricular block (1 point), and right bundle branch block (2 points). The resulting score was calculated from the total points. The internal validation in group B showed an ideal linear relationship in calibration plot (R2 = 0.933) and a good predictive accuracy (area under the curve: 0.693; 95% confidence interval: 0.627 to 0.759).
CONCLUSIONS: This prediction model accurately predicts post-operative risk of CIED implantation with simple pre-operative parameters.
BACKGROUND: High-grade atrioventricular block requiring CIED remains a significant sequelae following TAVR. Although several pre-operative characteristics have been associated with the risk of post-operative CIED implantation, an accurate and validated risk prediction model is not established yet.
METHODS: This was a single center, retrospective study of consecutive patients who underwent TAVR from March 10, 2011, to October 8, 2018. This cohort sample was randomly divided into a derivation cohort (group A) and a validation cohort (group B). A scoring system for risk prediction of post-TAVR CIED implantation was devised using logistic regression estimates in group A and the calibration and validation were done in group B.
RESULTS: A total of 1,071 patients underwent TAVR during the study period. After excluding pre-existing CIED, a total of 888 cases were analyzed (group A: 507 and group B: 381). Independent predictive variables were as follows: self-expanding valve (1 point), hypertension (1 point), pre-existing first-degree atrioventricular block (1 point), and right bundle branch block (2 points). The resulting score was calculated from the total points. The internal validation in group B showed an ideal linear relationship in calibration plot (R2 = 0.933) and a good predictive accuracy (area under the curve: 0.693; 95% confidence interval: 0.627 to 0.759).
CONCLUSIONS: This prediction model accurately predicts post-operative risk of CIED implantation with simple pre-operative parameters.