A century of emergence: trends and patterns in human viral pathogens, 1900-2024, a systematic review.

BACKGROUND

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) pose ongoing global health threats, making it essential to understand their temporal, geographic, and biological patterns to inform prevention and control strategies.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review of 212 human viruses reported between 1900 and 2024, drawing data from Scopus, PubMed, and grey literature, and applied an adapted PRISMA framework. Temporal trends, geographic origins, modes of transmission, and clinical syndromes were analyzed, complemented by a novel visualization tool for exploring patterns interactively.

RESULTS

Viral emergence peaked during 1950-1979 (n = 87) and again since 2000 (n = 52), with the United States (n = 42), China (n = 15), and Australia (n = 10) most frequently reported as initial detection sites, reflecting differences in surveillance and research capacity. RNA viruses, particularly influenza viruses and coronaviruses, dominated emergence events. Vector-borne and zoonotic pathogens accounted for 62% of EIDs. Temporal peaks corresponded with advancements in molecular diagnostics, laboratory infrastructure, and global surveillance networks. We identified 212 viruses, with most emerging between 1950 and 1979 (n = 87) and 52 since 2000. Febrile disease was predominant (27.4%), with respiratory and hemorrhagic diseases also prevalent.

CONCLUSION

Our findings highlight how technological, ecological, and socio-demographic factors shape viral emergence. The interactive visualization tool provides a resource for understanding historical trends, informing risk assessment, and guiding future surveillance strategies.