Accident; analysis and prevention · 2015
The effect of stricter licensing on road traffic injury events involving 15 to 17-year-old moped drivers in Sweden: A time series intervention study.
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Bonander Carl, Andersson Ragnar, Nilson Finn
Аннотация
INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to evaluate and quantify the effect of the introduction of the AM driving license on non-fatal moped-related injuries in Sweden. With the introduction of the new license category in October 2009, prospective moped drivers are now required to pass a mandatory theory test following a practical and theoretical course. In addition, obtaining a license to operate a moped is now considerably more costly.
METHODS: Time series intervention analysis on monthly aggregated injury data (1st Jan 2007-31st Dec 2013) was performed using generalized additive models for location, shape and scale (GAMLSS) to quantify the effect size on injury events involving teenage (15-17 years) moped drivers, while controlling for trend and seasonality. Exposure was adjusted for by using the number of registered mopeds in traffic as a proxy.
RESULTS: The introduction of AM license was associated with a 41% reduction in the rate of injury events involving 15-year-old moped drivers (IRR 0.59 [95% CI: 0.48-0.72]), and a 39% and 36% decrease in those involving 16-year-old (IRR 0.61 [95% CI: 0.48-0.79]) and 17-year-old drivers (IRR 0.64 [95% CI: 0.46-0.90]), respectively. The effect in the 15-year-old stratum was decreased roughly by half after adjusting for exposure, but remained significant, and the corresponding estimates in the other age groups did not change noticeably.
CONCLUSIONS: This study provides quasi-experimental evidence of an effect on non-fatal moped-related injuries as a result of stricter licensing rules. Only part of the effect could be explained by a reduction in the number of mopeds in traffic, indicating that other mechanisms must be studied to fully understand the cause of the reduction in injuries.
METHODS: Time series intervention analysis on monthly aggregated injury data (1st Jan 2007-31st Dec 2013) was performed using generalized additive models for location, shape and scale (GAMLSS) to quantify the effect size on injury events involving teenage (15-17 years) moped drivers, while controlling for trend and seasonality. Exposure was adjusted for by using the number of registered mopeds in traffic as a proxy.
RESULTS: The introduction of AM license was associated with a 41% reduction in the rate of injury events involving 15-year-old moped drivers (IRR 0.59 [95% CI: 0.48-0.72]), and a 39% and 36% decrease in those involving 16-year-old (IRR 0.61 [95% CI: 0.48-0.79]) and 17-year-old drivers (IRR 0.64 [95% CI: 0.46-0.90]), respectively. The effect in the 15-year-old stratum was decreased roughly by half after adjusting for exposure, but remained significant, and the corresponding estimates in the other age groups did not change noticeably.
CONCLUSIONS: This study provides quasi-experimental evidence of an effect on non-fatal moped-related injuries as a result of stricter licensing rules. Only part of the effect could be explained by a reduction in the number of mopeds in traffic, indicating that other mechanisms must be studied to fully understand the cause of the reduction in injuries.