Progress in cardiovascular diseases · 2026
Computed tomography-derived score as a predictor of major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with severe aortic stenosis.
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Savo Maria Teresa, Pergola Valeria, De Amicis Morena, Cozac Dan Alexandru, Chiaruttini Maria Vittoria, Mancini Maria Elisabetta, Tarantini Giuseppe, Marra Martina Perazzolo, Tona Francesco, Gregori Dario, Corrado Domenico, Pontone Gianluca, Motta Raffaella
Аннотация
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The prognostic significance of global calcium burden-including coronary artery (CAC), mitral annular (MAC), aortic valve (AVC), and thoracic aortic calcification (TAC)-as assessed by cardiac computed tomography (CCT), remains incompletely understood in patients with severe aortic stenosis (AS) undergoing aortic valve replacement (AVR). This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic impact of overall calcification burden in patients with severe AS undergoing AVR.
METHODS: A retrospective analysis of 313 patients with severe AS undergoing CCT before AVR between 2016 and 2019 was conducted. MAC, CAC, AVC were quantified using established scoring methods. For TAC, a total thoracic aortic (TTA) score was developed by evaluating calcifications in the ascending, descending and aortic arch. MAC, CAC, AVC, and TTA were integrated into a comprehensive scoring system, the New Total Calcium (NTC) score, using Random Forest models. Outcomes considered included MACE, all-cause mortality, and non-cardiovascular mortality over a 60-month follow-up.
RESULTS: Among 313 patients (mean age 81 years), 93% underwent transcatheter AVR. Severe CAC and MAC were observed in 11% and 7.7% of patients, respectively. During follow-up, 48% of patients died, with non-cardiovascular deaths accounting for 34% and MACE occurring in 43%. In this predominantly TAVR population, the TTA score predicted MACE (p = 0.01), all-cause mortality (p = 0.01), and non-cardiovascular mortality (p = 0.005). The NTC score demonstrated high prognostic accuracy for MACE at 1-, 2-, and 3-years, with AUC values of 0.91, 0.80, and 0.81, respectively. Validation in an external cohort of 100 patients confirmed its robustness.
CONCLUSIONS: In this predominantly transcatheter AVR cohort, the NTC score is a promising tool for risk stratification in patients with severe AS. These findings are primarily applicable to transcatheter AVR patients, and further validation in SAVR populations is warranted.
METHODS: A retrospective analysis of 313 patients with severe AS undergoing CCT before AVR between 2016 and 2019 was conducted. MAC, CAC, AVC were quantified using established scoring methods. For TAC, a total thoracic aortic (TTA) score was developed by evaluating calcifications in the ascending, descending and aortic arch. MAC, CAC, AVC, and TTA were integrated into a comprehensive scoring system, the New Total Calcium (NTC) score, using Random Forest models. Outcomes considered included MACE, all-cause mortality, and non-cardiovascular mortality over a 60-month follow-up.
RESULTS: Among 313 patients (mean age 81 years), 93% underwent transcatheter AVR. Severe CAC and MAC were observed in 11% and 7.7% of patients, respectively. During follow-up, 48% of patients died, with non-cardiovascular deaths accounting for 34% and MACE occurring in 43%. In this predominantly TAVR population, the TTA score predicted MACE (p = 0.01), all-cause mortality (p = 0.01), and non-cardiovascular mortality (p = 0.005). The NTC score demonstrated high prognostic accuracy for MACE at 1-, 2-, and 3-years, with AUC values of 0.91, 0.80, and 0.81, respectively. Validation in an external cohort of 100 patients confirmed its robustness.
CONCLUSIONS: In this predominantly transcatheter AVR cohort, the NTC score is a promising tool for risk stratification in patients with severe AS. These findings are primarily applicable to transcatheter AVR patients, and further validation in SAVR populations is warranted.
Предметные рубрики MeSH
HumansAortic Valve StenosisFemaleSeverity of Illness IndexPredictive Value of TestsRetrospective StudiesMaleAged, 80 and overAgedRisk AssessmentAortic ValveRisk FactorsTime FactorsCalcinosisVascular CalcificationComputed Tomography AngiographyTomography, X-Ray ComputedTreatment OutcomeTranscatheter Aortic Valve ReplacementHeart Valve Prosthesis Implantation