Global Trends and Cross-country Inequalities of Acute Hepatitis E in the Elderly, 1990-2021: A Comprehensive Analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Acute hepatitis E (AHE) in the elderly can lead to severe complications including liver failure and mortality, yet the epidemiological landscape remains poorly characterized. This study aimed to assess the burden, trends, and health inequalities of AHE among the elderly over the past three decades, and to further predict its changes by 2030.

METHODS

Data on AHE in the elderly were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2021. The burden of AHE was analyzed by trends, decomposition, cross-country inequalities, and predictive analysis.

RESULTS

In 2021, the global incidence and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) for AHE among the elderly were recorded as 1,130,013.35 and 20,084.77, respectively. Although there were significant differences in the incidence and DALYs across countries, the number of incident cases increased from 1990 to 2021, with a slight rise in age-standardized rates, while the number and age-standardized rate of DALYs showed a declining trend. Decomposition analysis revealed that population growth and aging are the drivers of changes in incidence, while epidemiological changes somewhat offset the increases in DALYs driven by population growth. Low socio-demographic index countries bear a disproportionate burden of elderly AHE, although inequality gaps have narrowed over time. Notably, up to 2030, the number of incident cases and DALYs will continue increasing. The burden in elderly women was more pronounced than in men.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden of elderly AHE, as a major public health issue, remains substantial. While cross-country inequities have been alleviated over time, the pressure on lower socio-demographic index countries to control the disease remains high. AHE in elderly women requires further attention. This emphasizes the significant challenges faced in controlling and managing elderly AHE.