Study on the National Monthly Reported Severe Cases of Hand-foot-mouth Disease Forecasted by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model.

Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the monthly reported severe cases of hand-foot-mouth disease(HFMD) in China to provide a reference for prevention and control of HFMD and the application of ARIMA in of ARIMA in HFMD and other infectious diseases. On the basis of time series supplied by the monthly reported severe cases of the national HFMD from 2010 ~ 2015, ARIMA model was established with the actual cases of HFMD from January to September 2016 as the validated data and with the comparison of ARIMA model based on the data from 2010-2014- The models based on the 2010~2014 and 2010~2015 data of monthly reported severe cases of HFMD in China are ARIMA(1,1,0,) (2, 1,0)(12),ARIMA(0,1,1,) (2,1,0)(12) respectively. The comparison of two models shows that the average of the relative error decreases with the accumulated data and does not do the same with the shorter time of predication. Different time series may have different ARIMA models as for the same infectious diseases. It is needed to be further verified that the more data are accumulated, the more shorter time of predication is, the more-smaller the average of the relative error is.