Global, Regional, and National Burden of Hematologic Malignancies From 1990 to 2021, With Projections of Mortality and Incidence to 2031.

BACKGROUND

Global analyses of hematologic malignancies often lack subtype integration and advanced forecasting, limiting public health planning.

METHODS

Using GBD 2021 data (1990-2021), we analyzed age-standardized incidence (ASIR), mortality (ASDR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for leukemia, lymphoma, and multiple myeloma. Spatiotemporal models quantified age-, sex-, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI)-stratified disparities. The Prophet model forecasted trends to 2031.

RESULTS

In 2021, global ASIRs were 5.63, 7.93, and 1.74 per 100,000 for leukemia, lymphoma, and multiple myeloma, respectively. ASIR correlated positively with SDI for all subtypes (e.g., multiple myeloma: ρ = 0.81, p < 0.001). Mortality patterns were heterogeneous; Hodgkin lymphoma ASDR correlated negatively with SDI (ρ = -0.26, p < 0.001). Projections suggest stable or declining ASDRs by 2031 (e.g., leukemia: 3.86 to 3.40) but persistent male predominance. DALYs remain high in low-SDI regions.

DISCUSSION: The disparity between high incidence in high-SDI areas and higher mortality fractions in low-SDI areas underscores diagnostic and therapeutic inequities. DALYs reflect associated long-term functional and psychosocial burden.

CONCLUSION

This study reveals profound global inequalities in hematologic malignancies. Mitigating this burden requires strengthening early diagnosis and treatment in low-SDI regions while integrating psychosocial support into global survivorship care.