International journal of epidemiology · 2026
Spatio-temporal trends in pleural mesothelioma mortality in Italy: a 40-year analysis by calendar period and birth cohort.
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Sartore Allegra, Stoppa Giorgia, Minelli Giada, Fazzo Lucia, Manno Valerio, Mensi Carolina, Marinaccio Alessandro, Biggeri Annibale, Catelan Dolores
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: Italy, among the leading asbestos producers and users until the national ban in 1992, continues to register a high burden of asbestos-related diseases, mainly due to their long latency and delays in remediation. This study investigates the spatio-temporal evolution of pleural mesothelioma (PM) mortality over the past 40 years.
MATERIALS AND METHODS: Malignant pleural tumours and PM deaths (1980-2020) were extracted from the national death registry, adjusted for misclassification of pleural tumours, and analysed by region and birth cohort (1905-1984). The analyses by calendar period and cohort, stratified by sex assigned at birth, were followed by a space-cohort Bayesian Hierarchical Model with structured random effects for time (cohorts up to 1960-1969) and space (administrative regions).
RESULTS: In Italy, from 1980 to 2020, 35 134 people died from PM (24 380 males and 10 754 females). A mortality decrease was observed in males after 2010-14 and in females after 2000-4. Mortality steadily declined in both males and females across cohorts after 1935-44. The space-time analysis enabled the clear identification of the Italian regions most affected by PM.
CONCLUSION: Italy's trend mirrors those of other Western countries that have banned asbestos, with the highest risks for birth cohorts in working age before the ban. The results reveal distinct spatio-temporal patterns, with the northern regions exhibiting the highest rates. The Italian experience with asbestos-related diseases detection could help other countries to assess the impact of asbestos, raise awareness, and promote a global ban on asbestos.
MATERIALS AND METHODS: Malignant pleural tumours and PM deaths (1980-2020) were extracted from the national death registry, adjusted for misclassification of pleural tumours, and analysed by region and birth cohort (1905-1984). The analyses by calendar period and cohort, stratified by sex assigned at birth, were followed by a space-cohort Bayesian Hierarchical Model with structured random effects for time (cohorts up to 1960-1969) and space (administrative regions).
RESULTS: In Italy, from 1980 to 2020, 35 134 people died from PM (24 380 males and 10 754 females). A mortality decrease was observed in males after 2010-14 and in females after 2000-4. Mortality steadily declined in both males and females across cohorts after 1935-44. The space-time analysis enabled the clear identification of the Italian regions most affected by PM.
CONCLUSION: Italy's trend mirrors those of other Western countries that have banned asbestos, with the highest risks for birth cohorts in working age before the ban. The results reveal distinct spatio-temporal patterns, with the northern regions exhibiting the highest rates. The Italian experience with asbestos-related diseases detection could help other countries to assess the impact of asbestos, raise awareness, and promote a global ban on asbestos.