[Prediction of the effectiveness of a health care organization system for Muscovites in case of scab].

The present paper gives data on prediction of the number of Muscovites and homeless individuals who suffered from scab in 1998-2005. As of 2005, the difference in the expected and actual number of scab patients among the Muscovites and the homeless was 4.3 and 13% less than the expected values, respectively. At the same time the authors show that over 6 years (2005-2010) the incidence of scab will be able to reduce by 43.5 and 48.7% among the Muscovites and the homeless, respectively. Due to the extensive use of the inexpensive, safe, and most effective drugs medifox and medifox-super to treat scab and disinfect its foci, the efficiency of the treatment and prevention of scab has considerably increased. The above and other measures implemented by a dermatovenereological service and the concerned organizations improved the rating of Moscow: if it occupied the tenth place in the incidence of scab in 1999, then in 2003 it ranked third among the subjects of the Russian Federation.