Hepatitis surface B antigen clearance induced by long-term tenofovir disoproxil fumarate monotherapy in chronic hepatitis B treatment: a meta-analysis and longitudinal modeling analysis.

BACKGROUND

Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is a significant global health challenge, with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) widely used as an effective treatment option. Despite TDF's efficacy in suppressing hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA, it rarely achieves functional cure, requiring hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) clearance or seroconversion, which are an optimal goal of CHB treatment. This study aimed to evaluate the long-term effects of TDF monotherapy on HBsAg clearance rates through a systematic review and meta-analysis, combined with a longitudinal modeling analysis to investigate HBsAg dynamics.

METHODS

Eligible studies published between January 1st, 2008, and September 28th, 2023, in PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science were included in the systematic review and meta-analysis. The longitudinal model was developed based on data from 123 subjects in a Phase III trial cohort.

RESULTS

Twenty-three studies were selected for meta-analysis. The summarized HBsAg clearance rate was near zero and unlikely to increase with extended treatment. The longitudinal model of HBsAg dynamic in CHB patients receiving TDF monotherapy showed a good fitting performance and extrapolation predictive ability. Model-based simulation confirmed that HBsAg clearance remained unlikely with prolonged therapy, with median HBsAg levels reducing by 21% after 168 weeks.

CONCLUSIONS

The consistency between meta-analysis and model simulation outcomes indicated that TDF monotherapy can achieve a limited reduction in HBsAg levels but did not result in functional cure, which reinforced the limited role of TDF monotherapy in comprehensive CHB management.