Predictive Model of Surgical Time for Revision Total Hip Arthroplasty.

BACKGROUND

Maximizing operating room utilization in orthopedic and other surgeries relies on accurate estimates of surgical control time (SCT). A variety of case and patient-specific variables can influence the duration of surgical time during revision total hip arthroplasty (THA). We hypothesized that these variables are better predictors of actual SCT (aSCT) than a surgeon's own prediction (pSCT).

METHODS

All revision THAs from October 2008 to September 2014 from one institution were accessed. Variables for each case included aSCT, pSCT, patient age, gender, body mass index, American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status class, active infection, periprosthetic fracture, bone loss, heterotopic ossification, and implantation/explantation of a well-fixed acetabular/femoral component. These were incorporated in a stepwise fashion into a multivariate regression model for aSCT with a significant cutoff of 0.15. This was compared to a univariate regression model of aSCT that only used pSCT.

RESULTS

In total, 516 revision THAs were analyzed. After stepwise selection, patient age and American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status were excluded from the model. The most significant increase in aSCT was seen with implantation of a new femoral component (24.0 min), followed by explantation of a well-fixed femoral component (18.7 min) and significant bone loss (15.0 min). Overall, the multivariate model had an improved r2 of 0.49, compared to 0.16 from only using pSCT.

CONCLUSION

A multivariate regression model can assist surgeons in more accurately predicting the duration of revision THAs. The strongest predictors of increased aSCT are explantation of a well-fixed femoral component, placement of an entirely new femoral component, and presence of significant bone loss.