Forecasting the Burden of Cardiovascular Disease and Stroke in Women in the United States Through 2050: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association.

BACKGROUND

Forecasts for the future prevalence of cardiovascular disease and stroke are crucial to guide efforts to improve health outcomes across the life course for women.

METHODS

Using historical trends from the 2015 to 2020 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2015 to 2019 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, and census estimates for population growth, we estimated trends in prevalence through 2050 for cardiovascular risk factors based on suboptimal levels of Life's Essential 8 and clinical cardiovascular disease and stroke, overall and by age and race and ethnicity.

RESULTS

Among adult women overall, the prevalence of hypertension is estimated to increase from 48.6% in 2020 to 59.1% in 2050. Diabetes (14.9% to 25.3%) and obesity (43.9% to 61.2%) will increase, whereas hypercholesterolemia will decline (42.1% to 22.3%). Prevalences of suboptimal diet, inadequate physical activity, and smoking will decline over time, and inadequate sleep will increase. Prevalences of coronary disease (6.85% to 8.21%), heart failure (2.45% to 3.60%), stroke (4.14% to 6.74%), atrial fibrillation (1.58% to 2.31%), and total cardiovascular disease and stroke (10.7% to 14.4%) will rise. Similar trends are projected in girls 2 to 19 years of age, with an increase from 19.6% to 32.0% projected in obesity. Most adverse trends are projected to be more pronounced among women and girls identifying as American Indian/Alaska Native or multiracial, Black, or Hispanic.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and disease in women and girls will increase over the next 30 years. Focused clinical and public health interventions are needed across the life course to address these adverse trends.