Predictors of Long-Term Rebleeding Risk in Cirrhotic Patients Undergoing Esophagogastric Devascularization and Splenectomy: Impact of Portal Vein Thrombosis and Hemoglobin Levels.

BACKGROUND Esophagogastric devascularization and splenectomy (EGDS) is widely used to treat patients with portal hypertension in China. This study aimed to determine risk factors that increase risk of rebleeding after EGDS and evaluate the effect of portal vein thrombosis (PVT) on rebleeding rates after EGDS. MATERIAL AND METHODS Clinical data of patients with cirrhosis (n=138) who underwent EGDS between December 2010 and January 2016 were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were assigned to rebleeding or non-rebleeding groups and followed up. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses identified the independent predictors of 3-year and 5-year rebleeding. RESULTS A total of 138 consecutive patients who underwent EGDS and met the inclusion criteria were enrolled. Total bilirubin (HR: 2.392, 95% CI 1.032-5.545, P=0.042) and PVT (HR: 3.345, 95% CI 1.477-7.573, P=0.004) predicted 3-year rebleeding during univariate analysis. Multivariate analysis revealed that PVT (HR: 3.967, 95% CI 1.742-9.035, P=0.001) was an independent predictor. Hemoglobin >87.5 g/L (HR: 3.104, 95% CI 1.283-7.510, P=0.012) and PVT (HR: 2.349, 95% CI 1.231-4.483, P=0.010) were predictors of 5-year rebleeding during multivariate analysis. Albumin >37.5 g/L was an independent predictor of rebleeding in patients with PVT at 3 and 5 years (HR: 3.964, 95% CI 1.301-9.883, P=0.008; HR: 3.193, 95% CI 1.275-7.997, P=0.013, respectively). CONCLUSIONS PVT is associated with increased 3-year and 5-year rebleeding rates after EGDS but not at 10 years. Also, hemoglobin >87.5 g/L predicted rebleeding at 5 years. Albumin has huge prospects as a predictor of rebleeding at 3 and 5 years in patients with PVT.