Communications medicine · 2024
Morbidity of SARS-CoV-2 in the evolution to endemicity and in comparison with influenza.
СтатьяНазвание и аннотация: Перевод пока не подготовлен
Обработка статьи · этапы, ошибки и управление
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История · было → стало
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Bartha Istvan, Maher Cyrus, Lavrenko Victor, Chen Yi-Pei, Tao Qiqing, di Iulio Julia, Boundy Keith, Kinter Elizabeth, Yeh Wendy, Corti Davide, Telenti Amalio
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: There are three possible SARS-CoV-2 post-pandemic scenarios: (i) ongoing severity, (ii) influenza-like severity, and (iii) a transition to an endemic disease with lesser morbidity similar to that of other human coronaviruses.
METHODS: To assess a possible evolution of the pandemic under the three scenarios, we use data from the US National Covid Cohort Collaborative, CDC COVID-NET, and CDC Fluview and from the WastewaterSCAN Dashboard. We include influenza disease and treatment response as benchmark. The US National Covid Cohort Collaborative allows the quantification of viral-specific morbidity using electronic health records from 424,165 SARS-CoV-2 cases, 53,846 influenza cases, and 199,971 uninfected control subjects from 2021-2022. Evolution of hospitalization rates is estimated from the correlation between national SARS-CoV-2 and influenza hospitalization data and viral gene copies in wastewater.
RESULTS: Our findings reveal that medically attended SARS-CoV-2 infections exhibit similar morbidity to influenza [indicative of scenario (ii)], but SARS-CoV-2 hospitalization rates are one order of magnitude lower than influenza when considering virus concentration in wastewater [indicative of scenario (iii)]. Moreover, SARS-CoV-2 displays a more favorable response to antiviral therapy.
CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis confirms a rapid decline in SARS-CoV-2 morbidity as it transitions to an endemic state.
METHODS: To assess a possible evolution of the pandemic under the three scenarios, we use data from the US National Covid Cohort Collaborative, CDC COVID-NET, and CDC Fluview and from the WastewaterSCAN Dashboard. We include influenza disease and treatment response as benchmark. The US National Covid Cohort Collaborative allows the quantification of viral-specific morbidity using electronic health records from 424,165 SARS-CoV-2 cases, 53,846 influenza cases, and 199,971 uninfected control subjects from 2021-2022. Evolution of hospitalization rates is estimated from the correlation between national SARS-CoV-2 and influenza hospitalization data and viral gene copies in wastewater.
RESULTS: Our findings reveal that medically attended SARS-CoV-2 infections exhibit similar morbidity to influenza [indicative of scenario (ii)], but SARS-CoV-2 hospitalization rates are one order of magnitude lower than influenza when considering virus concentration in wastewater [indicative of scenario (iii)]. Moreover, SARS-CoV-2 displays a more favorable response to antiviral therapy.
CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis confirms a rapid decline in SARS-CoV-2 morbidity as it transitions to an endemic state.