A Predictive Model to Evaluate the HbeAg Positivity of Chronic Hepatitis B Virus Patients in Clinics: A Cross-Sectional Study.

Background and

Objective

The study aims to investigate the correlation between Hepatitis B 'e' antigen (HBeAg) and HBV DNA levels, and to find a convenient tool to estimate the HBV DNA level for clinicians. Materials and

Methods

We enrolled 1020 patients in this cross-sectional study and divided them into four groups: an HbeAg-positive and -negative group, and high and low HBV DNA levels groups.

Results

Alanine aminotransferase (ALT), Albumin (ALB) and HBeAg are independent risk factors for CHB patients. When the level of HBeAg is higher than 16.15 S/CO, it is four times more likely that the patients will have high levels of HBV DNA than those who do not. The ALT and TB are independent risk factors in HBeAg-negative patients with a high HBV DNA level. We have drawn three predictive models to estimate the HBV DNA levels for those with the chronic hepatitis B virus (CHB), and those that are HBeAg-positive and HBeAg-negative (Y1 = 0.004 × ALT(IU/L) + 1.412 × HBeAg (S/CO) - 0.029 × ALB (g/L) + 0.779, the AUC is 0.672, and the cutoff value is -0.072, there the sensitivity is 0.615, the specificity is 0.648, PPV is 65.182% and NPV is 60.837%; Y2 = 0.007 × HBeAg (S/CO) - 0.016 × HGB (g/L) + 3.070, the AUC is 0.724, and the cutoff value is 1.216, where the sensitivity is 0.626, the specificity is 0.897, PPV is 94.118% and NPV is 34.437%; Y3 = -0.005 × ALT(IU/L) + 0.006 × TB (umol/L) + 0.385, the AUC is 0.661, and the cutoff value is 0.263, where the sensitivity is 0.677, the specificity is 0.587, PPV is 66.820% and NPV is 40.774%, respectively). We propose that HBeAg is the most important risk factor for the patient with a high HBV DNA level, however, it is not as important in the HBeAg-positive group.

Conclusions

HBeAg is an independent risk factor that reflects the level of HBV DNA with a strong correlation. Patient with HBeAg (-) should combine TB and ALT to estimate the level of HBV DNA.