Global, regional, and national burdens of non-rheumatic calcific aortic valve disease in middle-aged and elderly populations from 1990 to 2021 and predictions up to 2050: trends, predictions, and health inequity.

AIM: The global incidence of non-rheumatic calcific aortic valve disease (NR-CAVD) is increasing annually owing to changes in the global population structure. We aimed to comprehensively assess the global disease burden and health inequity of NR-CAVD from 1990 to 2021 and predict the situation through 2050.

METHODS

Data on mortality, prevalence, incidence, DALYs, YLDs, and YLLs of NR-CAVD were extracted from the GBD 2021. The Joinpoint model, linear regression model, and health inequity index were used to evaluate the time trends from 1990 to 2021, predict the disease burden through 2050, and decompose NR-CAVD according to population aging, epidemiological changes, and population growth.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2021, the number of incident cases, prevalent cases, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and YLDs of NR-CAVD increased in both sexes, whereas the age-standardized rates are projected to decline through 2050. Decomposition analysis identified population growth as the primary driver, followed by aging. Significant health inequity in prevalence was observed across regions with different economic development levels.

CONCLUSION

Owing to population aging and growth, the NR-CAVD burden in middle-aged and elderly populations will continue to rise by 2050, with marked health inequity across economically divergent regions, highlighting the need to address this emerging public health challenge.