Bovine fascioliasis in Brazil: Economic impact and forecasting.

Fasciola hepatica causes liver damage and poor growth in cattle and other animals, including humans. Although the disease occurs throughout the country, it is hyperendemic in cattle in the South of Brazil. This work aimed to determine the economical loss by carcass weight variance using data from all the states where F. hepatica is found, as well as to run a disease forecast analysis for the Rio Grande do Sul State. We found a direct loss of approximately US$ 210 million/year from infected cattle in Brazil and the ARIMA model analysis revealed that an increase of fascioliasis is most probable if no parasite control program is adopted.