20-Year trajectories of six psychopathological dimensions in patients with first-episode psychosis: Could they be predicted?

Patients with first-episode psychoses (FEP) exhibit heterogeneity in clinical manifestations and outcomes. This study investigated the long-term trajectories of six key psychopathological dimensions (reality-distortion, negative, disorganization, catatonia, mania and depression) in patients diagnosed with FEP. A total of 243 patients were followed up for 20 years and the trajectories of the dimensions were analysed using growth mixture modelling. These dimensions showed varied course patterns, ranging from two to five trajectories. Additionally, the study examined the predictive value of different factors in differentiating between the long-term trajectories. The exposome risk score showed that familial load, distal and intermediate risk factors, acute psychosocial stressors and acute onset were significant predictors for differentiating between long-term psychopathological trajectories. In contrast, polygenic risk score, duration of untreated psychosis and duration of untreated illness demonstrated little or no predictive value. The findings highlight the importance of conducting a multidimensional assessment not only at FEP but also during follow-up to customize the effectiveness of interventions. Furthermore, the results emphasize the relevance of assessing premorbid predictors from the onset of illness. This may enable the identification of FEP patients at high-risk of poor long-term outcomes who would benefit from targeted prevention programs on specific psychopathological dimensions.