Clinical chemistry and laboratory medicine · 2023
Individual risk prediction of high grade prostate cancer based on the combination between total prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and free to total PSA ratio.
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Ferraro Simona, Biganzoli Davide, Rossi Roberta Simona, Palmisano Franco, Bussetti Marco, Verzotti Enrica, Gregori Andrea, Bianchi Filippo, Maggioni Marco, Ceriotti Ferruccio, Cereda Cristina, Zuccotti Gianvincenzo, Kavsak Peter, Plebani Mario, Marano Giuseppe, Biganzoli Elia Mario
Аннотация
OBJECTIVES: Clinical practice guidelines endorse the stratification of prostate cancer (PCa) risk according to individual total prostate-specific antigen (tPSA) values and age to enhance the individual risk-benefit ratio. We defined two nomograms to predict the individual risk of high and low grade PCa by combining the assay of tPSA and %free/tPSA (%f/tPSA) in patients with a pre-biopsy tPSA between 2 and 10 μg/L.
METHODS: The study cohort consisted of 662 patients that had fPSA, tPSA, and a biopsy performed (41.3% with a final diagnosis of PCa). Logistic regression including age, tPSA and %f/tPSA was used to model the probability of having high or low grade cancer by defining 3 outcome levels: no PCa, low grade (International Society of Urological Pathology grade, ISUP<3) and high grade PCa (ISUP≥3).
RESULTS: The nomogram identifying patients with: (a) high vs. those with low grade PCa and without the disease showed a good discriminating capability (∼80%), but the calibration showed a risk of underestimation for predictive probabilities >30% (a considerable critical threshold of risk), (b) ISUP<3 vs. those without the disease showed a discriminating capability of 63% and overestimates predictive probabilities >50%. In ISUP 5 a possible loss of PSA immunoreactivity has been observed.
CONCLUSIONS: The estimated risk of high or low grade PCa by the nomograms may be of aid in the decision-making process, in particular in the case of critical comorbidities and when the digital rectal examinations are inconclusive. The improved characterization of the risk of ISUP≥3 might enhance the use for magnetic resonance imaging in this setting.
METHODS: The study cohort consisted of 662 patients that had fPSA, tPSA, and a biopsy performed (41.3% with a final diagnosis of PCa). Logistic regression including age, tPSA and %f/tPSA was used to model the probability of having high or low grade cancer by defining 3 outcome levels: no PCa, low grade (International Society of Urological Pathology grade, ISUP<3) and high grade PCa (ISUP≥3).
RESULTS: The nomogram identifying patients with: (a) high vs. those with low grade PCa and without the disease showed a good discriminating capability (∼80%), but the calibration showed a risk of underestimation for predictive probabilities >30% (a considerable critical threshold of risk), (b) ISUP<3 vs. those without the disease showed a discriminating capability of 63% and overestimates predictive probabilities >50%. In ISUP 5 a possible loss of PSA immunoreactivity has been observed.
CONCLUSIONS: The estimated risk of high or low grade PCa by the nomograms may be of aid in the decision-making process, in particular in the case of critical comorbidities and when the digital rectal examinations are inconclusive. The improved characterization of the risk of ISUP≥3 might enhance the use for magnetic resonance imaging in this setting.