Estimating incidence of the French BSE infection using a joint analysis of both asymptomatic and clinical BSE surveillance data.

Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) clinical surveillance data were the main source of information to perform back-calculation of BSE infection incidence. Since 2001, systematic BSE screening tests enhanced the clinical surveillance and allowed to detect some preclinical, i.e. asymptomatic, cases of BSE. We propose a method to incorporate additional information provided by screening tests. It was the first time that a back-calculation model was developed for a full BSE clinical surveillance. In the spirit, our approach resembles what it was done in the Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) epidemic to incorporate the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) diagnosis. Nevertheless, in the BSE epidemic, we had to consider different surveillance systems, their peculiarity, and the phenomenon of communicating vessels between these surveillance systems. In addition, both the preclinical sensitivity of tests and the status of BSE cases, asymptomatic or clinical, were not precisely known. We applied the model to the French BSE epidemic in order to obtain an updated estimate of the incidence of BSE infection. Our back-calculation model fitted very well the observed data of each surveillance system. We detected a lengthening of the incubation period and estimated that the number of infections was very small in the late 1990s and zero in July 2001.